Every player in fantasy football must have a projection. This is how rankings are made and personal biases are avoided. The model that I have used to project NFL player projections went very well last season. These projections aren’t an opinion but are based on pace, statistical data, game flow predictions, weather, vegas odds, and other variables. In this first projection piece, we will look at the quarterbacks.
*25 pass yards = 1 fantasy point
*1 pass td = 4 fantasy points
*10 rush yards = 1 fantasy point
*1 rush td = 6 fantasy points
Fantasy Football Quarterback Predictions
Patrick Mahomes is projected to be the top-scoring quarterback in 2019 and not many will disagree. Mahomes has it all with elite talent, a top tier play-caller in Andy Reid, and arguably the best skill position group in the entire NFL.
Mahomes is due for another MVP-caliber season and I project him throwing for 4,721 yards, 46 touchdowns with 14 interceptions to go with 46 carries for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns. This comes out to an astounding 380.84 fantasy points in a standard scoring format.
Big Name Bias
Many fantasy players will reach for guys they believe to be good NFL quarterbacks. Tom Brady is arguably the greatest quarterback of all time and is coming off yet another Super Bowl ring. However, fantasy football isn’t real football. Brady doesn’t bring elite fantasy upside at this stage in his career the Patriot’s offense is a lot more balanced in terms of running and throwing the football.
That’s not to mention the loss of Rob Gronkowski will not help Brady’s case. Brady has played 129 games with Gronkowski compared to 33 games without. Projecting those stats over a 16 game season, the Patriots quarterback drops from 4, 697 yards, 35 touchdowns, and eight interceptions to just 4,292 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. That’s a significant drop. Brady should not be drafted in fantasy drafts and should be used as a streaming option only in 2019.
Breakout Fantasy Player
Baker Mayfield is the obvious choice, but it’s difficult to go with another option. Mayfield is going into his second season and his first full season as the starter. The Browns quarterback showed off his potential last year and with some more consistency, experience, a full offseason with head coach Freddie Kitchens, and the addition off premier wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr, expect Mayfield to breakout and end 2019 as a top-5 fantasy quarterback.