Los Angeles Rams: Taking Down Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars Offense

The Los Angeles Rams defense have had a rough three weeks. As a defense they had not given up more than 24 points to opposing offenses up until Week 8. Since then, the Los Angeles Rams have allowed an average of 31.6 points in their last three losses. Without diving into the reasons behind those losses, the Los Angeles Rams can move forward this week with a possible “get right” game against the Jaguars at home on Sunday afternoon. And while wins are decided by a total team effort, the defense needs to get back to the 15.3 point average the Rams defense were allowing during their seven wins this season.

The Jaguars Offense

The Jacksonville Jaguars offense is lead by rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence. They currently have a 2-9 record coming into Week 13, and sit at third in the standings in the AFC South. Their record does not speak for the type of talent that is on this offense. Besides 31 year old Marvin Jones and 30 year old Tavon Austin, this offense was built for the future with the major offensive contributors all under the age of 27.

As already mentioned, the rookie Lawrence is 22, second year running back James Robinson is 23, with wide receivers Laviska Shenault (23), D.J. Chark (25), Jamal Agnew (26), and Laquon Treadwell (26). Chark (ankle) and Agnew (hip) were placed on IR, as well as starting tight end Dan Arnold all within the last month and a half. Tight end replacements Chris Manhertz and James O’Shaughnessy have been used sparingly in the passing game. It may be this relative lack of experience that is contributing to their 2-9 record and second worst in the league 15.7 points per game.

The Offensive Line

The Jaguars offensive line is ranked 9th overall by The Undroppables due to solid pass blocking (8th overall) and even better run blocking (6th overall). Their run blocking rating is partially based off creating the sixth most adjusted line yards with 4.62. From a pass blocking perspective, they’ve given up 20 sacks on the year and have an adjusted sack rate of 5.4%. The offensive line is allowing on average 1.8 sacks per game, which is tied for ninth overall.

The Jaguars are anchored by young bookend tackles Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor. Both were second round picks for the Jaguars in 2017 and 2019, respectively. However, despite the high expectations for both players, they have been grading out in the low 60’s per PFF. V

Veteran left guard Andrew Norwell has been the highest graded lineman at 74.1% and no sacks allowed. Right guard Ben Bartch, a 4th round pick in 2020, has been playing fairly well with a 69% PFF grade. And the longest tenured lineman on the team, center Brandon Linder has been just ok with a low 60% grade.

Tendencies

• Far more likely to run plays over the center than any other position (107 times)
• However, running backs earn the second least yards per carry on runs over center
• Right tackle Jawaan Taylor has given up the most sacks on the team (3)
• The guards and center have given up a combined 3 sacks
• The right side of the line (RG and RT) have given up 5 sacks total

The Run Game

Last year’s undrafted breakout running back James Robinson continues to lead the backfield after first round draft pick Travis Etienne hurt his foot. However, despite getting the lion’s share of the workload, Robinson is off pace from his excellent 2020 season. And while he has still very much contributed to the production on this offense, it’s in different ways.

Despite less carries and yards, he has already matched his rushing touchdown total from 2020 with seven. But with less yards per attempt and yards per target, he’s only staying fantasy relevant due to the touchdown production. Robinson is officially listed as Questionable for this week, but if he starts, he’s both a talented runner and receiver that will need to be keyed in on regardless of less than impressive stat lines.

The second leading rusher for the Jaguars, just edging out veteran Carlos Hyde despite less carries, is rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence. We always knew about his rushing ability as he displayed it multiple times in big games at Clemson. In fact, Lawrence and Robinson have the same rushing yards per attempt with 5.1.

Adding in his passing production, Lawrence is generating over 300 yards of total offense a game. And he has as many first downs as backup running back Carlos Hyde. Hyde has chipped in 62 rushes for 227 yards and no touchdowns. With Ogunbowale adding 5 carries of his own. If Robinson can’t go on Sunday, Hyde will fill in, but Lawrence will likely create the most yards on the ground.

Tendencies

• Most successful running up the middle and outside the tackles
• Trevor Lawrence is the only successful runner on 4th down
• Robinson is far more likely to run the ball on 1st down (2:1 split on 2nd down)
• Highest yards per carry is on 2nd down between the guards
• Most explosive runs are over center or to the outside left

The Passing Attack

Rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence is having a typical rookie year. However, this perennial winner since birth was automatically set up to have the worst season in his life, especially with the Jaguars.

Despite the record though, Lawrence is the 22nd ranked passer in terms of passing yards. He’s thrown almost 400 passes for just over 2,300 yards. His worst stat is his TD/INT ratio with nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year. Lawrence is trying to push the ball down the field with an intended air yard average of 8.5; but he’s only completing an average of 5.4 air yards per pass. However, that’s right on par with the GOAT Tom Brady this season. He’s got talent, but he’s young and will improve in upcoming years, but right now he’s learning as he goes.

As mentioned earlier, this pass catching group is also young and talented, with Marvin Jones providing the veteran presence. Jones is leading the team with 79 targets for 46 receptions 529 yards and three touchdowns. Jones is top-20 in earning 31.82% of the team’s air yards as his average targeted air yards is 13.4.

He’s also making his catches on only 2.2 yards of separation on average. Jones is getting deep throws, but he’s only catching 58% of his targets and has the third lowest YAC/reception in the league with 1.8. He basically catches the ball and falls down.

Laviska Shenault is out pacing 2020 in targets operating mostly out of the slot with 47.4% of his snaps. Diving into the data comping 2021 to 2020, Shenhault has more targets per game, the same receptions per game, and similar yards per game. However, he has less yards per reception, a lower catch percentage, less yards per target, and less usage in the run game.

With more targets and less yards per reception, you would expect his aDOT and YAC to be down also. However, his aDOT is the same as last year and his YAC/reception is up to 6.0 from 5.1. So what’s really going on is his yards before catch per reception is down from 5.2 to 3.8 (shorter passes), drop percentage increasing to 4.2 (more drops), and no touchdowns.

Looking at Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception data for Viska for 2020, he was most successful on slants and routes to the flats, especially out of the backfield. However, he wasn’t particularly adept at beating press and man coverage. If Shenhault draws Ramsey in coverage he will be able to play close to the line in man and decrease that 3.5 yards of separation Shenhault typically creates. Austin and Treadwell will have to step up in order to take the heat off Jones and Shenhault, and Austin has shown he can still get into the end zone.

Tendencies

• 74% of all passes thrown are within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage
• Receivers are generally most successful on passes to the short middle and short left
• On third down, passes are most successful to the deep right and deep middle
• The only throws where Lawrence is better than league average is on throws to the deep right
• Throws to the deep right account for 12% of all passes thrown

Defensive Game Plan

The Los Angeles Rams defense will need to plan to stop a solid run game that includes a rushing quarterback. As well as a passing attack is currently good at best. Injuries have taken out the depth of talent of the pass catchers, so more focus can be given to key players.

As usual, the Los Angeles Rams top 10 defensive line will need to set the tone by putting pressure on the young gun slinger. The front seven will need to attack the offensive line on the edges to get sacks. And clog the middle where the majority of the runs will occur. Solid edge contain will limit outside runs, and blitzes off the edge will disrupt the pocket. This needs to be an all out attack on defense from the get go. Set the tone. And don’t let Lawrence get loose or drop a long pass to the deep right on a scramble.

Exploiting Tendencies

• Attack the right side of the Jaguars offensive line with line stunts and blitzes
• Double A gap blitzes on second down run situations
• Outside/edge blitzes with man coverage on passing downs
• Cover 2 with linebackers playing shallow to secure short passing routes
• Cloud coverage with safety help to deep right on third and long

About Post Author

Tommy Mo

author

Tommy Mo is a former D2 student-athlete that brings his decades of football experience to Downtown Rams. Tommy lives in Long Beach, CA and covers the Rams as the home town team. He also writes and oversees content creation for The Undroppables. You can find him on Twitter at @2on1FFB.

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