Since the Supreme Court lifted the federal ban on Sports Betting in May of 2018, states have been rapidly legalizing. Currently, we are sitting on 11 states legalized and 24 still pending. With this rapid expansion, sports bettors have flooded the markets with hopes of hitting big payouts on futures and 9+ team parlays. While the sharps stay away from these types of bets, newcomers are swarming towards this type of action. The obvious result is disappointment and “could you imagine?!”, but are there inefficiencies within the sportsbook that can be found?
Enter: Player Prop Bets.
Player Prop Bets within a sportsbook are the closest thing to Daily Fantasy Sports in a single bet i.e. they are predicated on an outcome related to an individual player specific to one game. For example, Week 2 Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Calvin Ridley to score a TD +240 (29.41%). Given the Eagles performance in Week 1 vs Case Keenum (380 yards 3 TDs 0 INT), the likelihood that Julio Jones would garner safety help over the top, and this being Atlanta’s home opener, getting Calvin Ridley to score vs. a weak secondary at more than 2:1 is very advantageous. This bet was a winner.
Stringing Together These Bets
Now what if we found several of these that exist on a weekly basis? This is where being a frequent DFS player can come in handy. The strategic aspect of building a daily fantasy roster is finding players that will out play their value while staying under budget. A player prop parlay is similar in nature, but there is no budget restriction. Piecing together players such as Calvin Ridley mentioned above and a favorite like Austin Ekeler to score a TD after Hunter Henry is injured (when we have seen in the past LAC RB touches increase when Henry is out). Throw in an undervalued, unknown, “new favorite weapon” of Lamar Jackson in Mark Andrews and now your odds are interesting. See below:
- Calvin Ridley to score a TD +240
- Austin Ekeler to score a TD -139
- Mark Andrews to score a TD +200
$100 pays $1753
A 3-leg parlay with two underdogs paying 16.5-1. The odds of Andrews and Ridley scoring a touchdown are much more likely than your underdog team play if you do your research. The disparity of these bets comes from the variety of players available on gameday who can score a TD vs. only one of two teams can win. However, most sports bettors would admit the odds of a +240-underdog winning on the road outright is far more unlikely to happen than your offense’s second favorite WR scoring vs. an inferior secondary. The only caveat to this type of bet is that sites such as FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook will not allow two props in one single game; you will need to find an individual player prop per game.
Player props are not relegated to TD scorers. Other examples of player props are O/U on receiving, rushing, or passing yards. Also, there are player prop bets that pin a QB/WR/RB vs his counterpart on the opposing team i.e. Patrick Mahomes(-225) will pass for more yards than Lamar Jackson (+163).
One of my favorites to throw in a parlay is “Player X to score a touchdown AND the team win”. This addition compounds the odds of the original if you feel confident in the team itself getting a win. It usually is best to add this on a heavy favorite’s running back as they tend to run the clock out late in games.
Finding these hidden gyms in each game and parlaying them together can result in massive payouts with minimal risk. It is worth mentioning that certain sites will offer “buy-outs” if your 6-leg parlay reaches 5 out of 6 heading into the Sunday or Monday night football game. Keep your hopes high and your payouts higher!